Showing posts with label India. Show all posts
Showing posts with label India. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

NHAI Circular for Substitution of Concessionaires

1.  In view of the difficulties being faced by Concessionaires in Public-Private-Partnership (PPP Projects), Government has decided to permit the substitution of existing Concessionaires, in a harmonious manner, in accordance with provisions of Clause 40.3 of the Model Concession Agreement read with Substitution Agreement set forth in Schedule-V of the Model Concession Agreement.
2.  This decision shall be applicable to all National Highway projects under PPP mode  awarded/yet to be awarded on Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) mode of delivery:
a.  The on-going 2-laning and 4-laning National Highway projects where financial close has been achieved by the Concessionaire but Commercial Operation Date (COD) has not yet been declared by the Authority;
b.  The 6-laning National Highway projects wherein the financial close has been achieved by the Concessionaire but the project completion certificate has not yet been issued by the Authority;
c.  Completed 2-laning, 4-laning and 6-laning National Highway projects awarded on Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) mode of delivery under PPP mode; and
d.   All the new National Highway projects under PPP mode yet to be bid out on BOT mode of  delivery in line with (a), (b) and/or (c) above, as the case may be.
3.   Provisions pertaining to substitution of the Concessionaire by the Lenders’ Representative are contained in Clause 40.3 of the Model Concession Agreement in general, and Clause 3.1.1 of Substitution Agreement in particular. Clause 3.2 and 3.3 of the Substitution Agreement provide for substitution in the event of Financial Default and Concessionaire’s Default respectively. It is further clarified that Right of Substitution by the Lenders’ Representative can be exercised in situations other than those illustrated in Clause 3.2 and 3.3 of the Substitution Agreement. In case of harmonious substitution as envisaged in this circular, the provisions contained in Clause 3.4 of the Substitution Agreement, except those contained in para 3.4.1, shall be applicable, in addition, to the procedure laid down herein below:
i.    The Concessionaire shall make a written representation to the Lenders’ Representative with a copy to the Authority requesting the Lenders’ Representative to seek approval of the Authority for its Substitution. Upon receiving the said request, the Lenders’ Representative shall make its own assessment regarding the said request of the Concessionaire and upon being satisfied that it will be in the interest of the Project that the Concessionaire may be substituted by a Nominated Company, Lenders’ Representative in consultation with the Concessionaire would invite, negotiate and procure offers either by private negotiations or public auction or tenders, for the takeover and transfer of the Project Highway including the Concession to the Nominated Company.
ii. Selection of the Nominated Company and the valuation of the Equity of the Concessionaire would be done by mutual consent of the Concessionaire and the Lenders’ Representative.
iii. Upon receiving the proposal of the Lenders’ Representative for substitution of the Concessionaire with the Nominated Company under Clause 3.4.3, the Authority shall satisfy itself about the credentials of the Nominated Company and accord its concurrence regarding such substitution.
a.   For projects that have achieved COD, the substituting entity should have adequate experience of operating and maintaining completed road projects by itself or through its associates/subsidiaries.
b.  For projects under construction, the substituting consortium/entity should have the requisite financial and technical qualifications to bid for a project of at least the same size, or higher/better.
Thereafter, the nominated Company will form an SPV for taking over the project along with all the rights and obligations of the Concessionaire.
iv.  While concurring to the said proposal of the Lenders’ Representative, Authority’s Board may levy an appropriate penalty keeping in view the nature and extent of default as per the procedure to be prescribed for the purpose by the Authority subject to a cap of 1% (one percent) of Total Project Cost.
v.  Where the responsibility for delay in execution or completion of the project is on account of non-fulfilment of the obligations of the Authority, namely, land acquisition, environmental clearances, other statutory/regulatory approvals/clearances, no penalty would be levied on the Concessionaire for non-fulfilment of its obligations. However, the Authority would be required to remedy the defaults before the formal agreement for substitution is signed.
vi. Subsequent to such substitution, for completed projects, the lead substituting entity shall be required to maintain at least 51% holding in the project SPV, save and except the situation for dilution of equity, in accordance with the provisions of Clause 7.1(k) of the Model Concession Agreement read with the definition of “Change of Ownership” as prescribed in Article 48 of the Model Concession Agreement.
vii. The procedure prescribed in other clauses of the Concession Agreement and the Substitution Agreement, other than that contained in Clause 3.4.1 of the latter, shall be strictly adhered to.
viii. The Authority shall stand fully discharged of any claims whatsoever, by the exiting Concessionaire.
ix.   Such substitution may be permitted only once during construction period

4.  The above clarifications/stipulations read with the Clauses referred hereinabove are with reference to Concession Agreements based on the Model Concession Agreement dated August, 2011. However, these shall apply mutatis mutandis to the relevant provisions of other Concession Agreements signed by the Authority for BOT Projects on PPP mode of delivery from time to time.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

NHAI circular on Securitization of cash flows

An NHAI Circular dated 29/05/2013 has placed a cap on securitization proceeds of BOT (Toll) projects. The contents of the circular are as follows:

“The issue regarding Securitization of future casf-flow in BOT (Toll) Projects was discussed in the 94th Board Meeting of the Authority held on 14/05/2013. With a view to ameliorate the shortage of equity and improve liquidity of the prospective bidders, Board approved the proposal for granting of permission by NHAI to the Concessionaires of BOT(Toll) projects, which have Toll revenues significantly surplus to the repayment obligations, to raise subordinate loan on the strength of future surplus cash flows of their operational BOT road projects subject to the following conditions:

a)  Raising of subordinate loan upto 30% of TPC of NHAI would be allowed only after COD of the project is achieved in case of 4-laning projects and construction is completed in case of 6-laning Projects
b)  Repayment of such loan would be the last priority under the waterfall mechanism of the Escrow Agreement. It would be allowed only after meeting all kinds of statutory levies / taxes, O&M expenses, concession fee, damages and other dues of the Authority and Debt Service along with interest due.
c)   Submission of an undertaking by the Concessionaire that it would not enhance the amount of Debt due, Termination Payment or any other liability of NHAI in any manner whatsoever.
d)   Receipt of NOC from the existing lenders of the Project
e) Receipt of such loan, giving of loan to the parent company, Servicing and repayment of loan by the parent company and servicing and repayment of the subordinate loan would be routed through Escrow account of SPV.
f)  Such loans would be used exclusively for investment as equity in road sector projects 
g)  Statutory Auditors of the SPV as well as the Group Company availing the loan from the concessionaire shall provide the details confirming the name of the project, the Authority awarding the project, TPC of the project, sources of funds and the amount of the equity invested within three months of availing such loan.

This has the approval of the Board of the Authority in its 94th Meeting held on 14/05/2013.”

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Indian Yield Curve - 17/10/2013



The yield curve has held on to its spoon shape, but 10Y bond spreads over 1Y / 2Y / 5Y bonds have continued to improve, because the yields of short term notes / bonds have steadily gone down. 


Thursday, September 26, 2013

Indian Yield Curve - 25/09/2013


Long-term bond yields beyond 15-yrs are still close to their highest values in the last 3-4 months (between 9 to 9.5%).

However, judging by the trend of 10Y yields over 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y yields, the corrections seems to have begun. The 1Y, 2Y, 5Y yields have all fallen below the 10Y yield for the first time after 16/07/2013. The chart is below:



Monday, September 9, 2013

The tale of India's wagging yield curve


Readers of this blog may be forgiven for thinking that the graph above is a crude animation of a wagging tail, or a cracking whip. The movement of India G-Sec Zero Coupon yield curve in recent times (the graph illustrates movement between April through September 2013) has been as violent as that of the stock market indices and the foreign exchange rates. 

The dotted lines form the bounds within which the yield curve has moved over the mentioned period. There is a spread of over 450 bps for bonds maturing within 6 months, and a spread of 200 bps for the 10-yr maturity G-secs. 

What is a yield curve?

Although any entity which issues bonds may have a yield curve, we will discuss the yield curve in terms of sovereign bonds ('G-Secs' or Government Securities, t-bills, etc). If the issuer (the Indian govt, in our case) is a regular borrower from the money market, at any point of time there are several bonds of different maturities (i.e. the period of time before the principal amount borrowed through the bond is repaid along with interest). 

Therefore, at any point of time the money market is likely to have bonds which mature in 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 30 years, etc. When the yields (annual return on the invested amount) of these bonds are charted on a graph with maturity on the horizontal axis and yield on the vertical axis, the resultant curve is called the Yield Curve.


This is not to be confused with the graph of the bond yield over time.


A quick primer about yield curves can be downloaded here:

Importance of the Yield Curve

In the medieval ages, soothsayers used to divine the future by observing various natural occurrences, flight patterns of birds, organs of sacrificed animals, etc. Economists nowadays use the slope of the yield curve to predict approaching periods of economic expansion and contraction.

The yield curve is probably one of the best-known leading economic indicators. Even as early as 1965, Reuben Kessel (The cyclical behavior of the term structure of interest rates) pointed out that spreads between long-term and short-term rates (for example, Yield of 10 yr bond - Yield of 3 month bill) tend to be narrow or even negative at the start of recessions and widen at the beginning of expansionary periods. 

The yield curve has been shown to predict GNP and GDP growth, consumption trends, investment trends and industrial production with a lead time of around a year to 18 months. The National Bureau of Economic Research in the US actually monitors the yield curve and dates recessionary periods. Data shows that the yield curve has successfully predicted every US recession since 1950 with just one exception. Studies have shown that this is true for many other major developed economies as well.

Do note that this correlation is much stronger in developed economies than in emerging economies, for the simple reason that money markets and debt capital markets in emerging economies are not as liquid or efficient as in developed economies. The yield curve is not the only leading indicator used by policy-makers. Several other indicators are used in conjunction with the yield curve.

What are the factors that affect the shape of the yield curve?

A risk premium is required by investors for the heightened risk of investing their money in a longer tenure bond, rather than a shorter tenure bond. Due to this, long-term bond yields are higher than short-term yields and the yield curve slopes upward. This is the normal shape of the yield curve.

However free market forces may modify the shape of the yield curve. The major forces affecting this shape are:
  1. investor expectations for future interest rates, and
  2. risk premiums on longer term bonds
* When the yield increases, it means traded bond prices are going down. This means an increase in the yield implies lower demand for traded bonds, higher risk perception etc. Decreasing yields imply higher bond prices in the market. This means higher demand for the bonds and lower risk perceptions regarding the economy and investment tenure.

As the shape of the curve partially depicts investors' expectations for future interest rates and future economic performance, the yield curve is considered to be a leading economic indicator. 
  1. Normal shape (gently upward sloping) - A gently upward sloping yield curve denotes expectations of stable economic growth with stable inflation rates. 
  2. Steep upward sloping - A steep upward slope implies that there is a wide, positive spread between long-term & short-term bond yields, and usually precedes periods of economic expansion and growth. High growth scenarios also bring the risk of higher inflation (and higher interest rates to control this inflation), therefore risk premia required by investors for longer term investments are correspondingly higher.
  3. Downward sloping (or the Inverted Yield curve) - A flat or downward sloping yield curve implies that there is either a narrow spread (flat curve) between long-term & short-term bond yields, or that this spread is negative (inverted curve). Inverted curves have been noticed before economic slowdowns and depressions.
Apart from market forces, the yield curve is also affected by changes in monetary policy (Read: Does Monetary Policy make the Yield Curve move: CRISIL). For example, the increasing interest rates, and liquidity curbs put in by RBI to control inflation have caused an inverted yield curve. Does this mean a (further) slowdown is on the cards for India?

While the 'coming slowdown' theory is the dominant view, some people feel that yield curve signals may not necessarily be the same for emerging markets and developed economies. Lower long-term yields may signify the growing comfort of investors with extended investment horizons in emerging markets. Read: Inverted Yield Curve Signals Lower Inflation, Not Recession

What is the relation of the yield curve with investment decisions, financial markets and the forex market?

In simple terms, an inverted yield curve means that investors feel that the risk of investing in the short-term is equal to or higher than investing long-term. This means corporates avoid capital expenditure in the short-term and investors postpone investment decisions to a later date. This brings down growth expectations and depresses stock valuations, affecting the stock markets. Due to falling valuations, fund managers pull out their investments and park them where the risk-return scenario is better. (Read: FIIs pull out $10.5 b from Indian capital market in June-July)

In emerging economies like India which depend on inflows of foreign funds, this pull out is especially painful as it drastically increases the supply of local currency in the markets, playing havoc with the supply-demand equilibrium in the currency markets. 


Do note that the events do not necessarily occur in the order I mentioned above. Any combination of these events may trigger a shift in the shape of the yield curve.

Further reading:
Yield Curve FAQ at the New York Fed website 

Request to readers: I would like to compare this with the behavior of the Yield Curves of the other BRICs over the same period, but I need the datasets. Do drop me a message in the comments section if you would like to collaborate regarding this study.

Sunday, September 8, 2013

Indian Yield Curve - 06/09/2013



What a wild couple of months its been!

The Indian yield curve is now inverted, in an attempt by the RBI to make it more expensive to short/sell the Indian Rupee. Is that the correct response keeping in mind the accelerating slowdown?

Further Reading - 

Monday, August 22, 2011

Funding Indian projects with foreign currency

References/Sources:
Consolidated FDI Policyhttp://bit.ly/ri811t
RBI Circular - External Commercial Borrowings & Trade Creditshttp://bit.ly/opZFWH


Foreign currency funding is picking up pace in India, not only for Large Corporates but for MSMEs as well. 


In some cases, increased supply is simply the symptom of available liquidity looking for higher returns. In others it is a necessitated by genuine strategic reasons, to finance both organic and inorganic growth. 


Demand is being pushed by tightening monetary controls in India (Refer to graphic below). Projects I am closing today are being finalized at a cost 200-250 bps higher than comparable projects I closed less than 9 months ago.




Additionally, foreign financial institutions - Banks, Hedge Funds, PE/VC funds - are now much more entrenched and cognizant of local realities, leading to a broad-based clientele and investment pool and a better ability and appetite to take risks in the market.


As and when time permits, I will try to filter the regulations (full versions in the sources at the beginning of this post) and break them down for quicker consumption. Till then, enjoy the originals. I will add other related Acts and Regulations as required.


Cheers

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Basic 'Project Finance legal-ese' for the rest of us

I have been busy closing a few projects, and came across publications by Ashurst and Luthra & Luthra which I found helpful in decoding some of the jargon.

Happy reading!

Luthra - PF in India

RTL Documentation & Issues for International Sponsors

Monday, May 2, 2011

Indian Yield Curve - 02/05/2011

Link to data: CCIL Indian Yield Curve (02/05/2011)

There are the signs of a bump forming between the 0.5-1.5 year range. Perhaps this is in line with market expectations of further rate hikes by RBI expected to be announced soon?



Monday, April 25, 2011

Indian Yield Curve - 21/04/2011

Link to data:
CCIL - India Yield Curve data (21/04/2010)

India has a very flat yield curve at the moment, and interest rates look to be close to their peak. Where will the rates go from here?



Sunday, April 25, 2010

No plans for new import duty on power equipment

Sources:
Economic Times (22 Apr 2010): No plans for new import duty on power equipment: Govt

No new duty will be imposed on imports of Chinese power equipment, the government informed Parliament today. 

The combination of a shortage of power generation capacity and a dearth of practising engineers makes India an attractive market for Chinese power equipment manufacturers. Moreover Indian manufacturers are unable to match, at least for the moment, the pricing of Chinese equipment and the project execution capability brought in by these companies, thus leading to a one-sided contest. By some estimates Chinese equipment accounts for approximately 25% of newly installed capacity.

BHEL is the country's largest public sector power equipment player and manufactures units that can generate 10,000 MW of power annually. The company plans to take this capacity upward to 15,000 MW by the end of the current financial year. It is therefore no surprise that BHEL was demanding a 10 per cent customs duty on import of equipment for projects awarded through the international competitive bidding route and mega power plants. At present, 5 per cent customs duty is imposed on equipment imported for projects awarded through the ICB process, while there is no duty on power equipment sourced for mega projects with a capacity of 1,000 MW and above. 

While financing institutions have recently been nudging power producers towards installation of  Indian or Japanese equipment citing quality concerns and lower operational life, the significant cost advantages of Chinese equipment ensure that there is no change in this trend at least for the time being.